Human Error Probabilities Computation for Manufacturing System Simulation Using Cream

Uncertainties in production and assembly processes have a significant influence on performance. When one speaks about uncertainties, in most of the cases it implies machine breakdowns, defective items or different uncertainties in procurement. However, especially in manual production, each realistic model should also take into account and treat human related uncertainties. Unfortunately, in contrast to “standard” uncertainties, there are no statistical data credible enough to use in order to model them. In the present paper we demonstrate the application of Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) in manual assembly. Through the knowledge of experts Cream permit to highlight the main cognitive errors, their impacts and to elicit these errors quantitatively.